From Uganda Corespondent Arinaitwe Rugyendo…
Late last week, I held a brief phone chat with Col. Felix Kulayige, the Spokesman of the Uganda Peoples Defense Forces (UPDF) over reports that our forces have deployed along the Congo and Sudan borders with Uganda.
This followed the confusion occasioned by the denials from the government of Uganda that nothing of the sort was happening at the border. But Col. Kulayige said that what is happening is not ‘deployment’ but ‘monitoring’ of the border by our forces just in case something from across affected our own security.
Constitutionally of course, the UPDF is certainly doing its noble duty of protecting our borders. But what is that ‘something’ from across the border that the army is wary of? On Sunday, January 9, 2011, the African continent will witness a historic moment. A new nation, called South Sudan, is likely to be born as Sudanese head for the polls in a plebiscite to decide whether their country should remain united or break up into two nations as per the terms of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) of 2005. But what is making everyone uncomfortable, including regional countries, is not the near fact that the country will split. It is rather the consequences of this split. Will the north accept the south to secede? If the South secedes, what will be the implications for regional countries such as Uganda?
Regional intelligence reports say, there are 70% chances of a likelihood of war or similar stalemate breaking out in Sudan between the North and South after the referendum which might affect the regional countries as well. This is the very reason why the Ugandan army has sought it wise to ‘monitor’ its border. But what are the facts to back this up?
In November last year, William Hague, the British Foreign Secretary told the United Nations Security Council members that it was necessary for the UN to concern itself with the referendum in Sudan because it will seal the fate of southern Sudan with huge implications for the rest of Africa, and there are dangerous signs that the peace process is unraveling. Around the same period, several incidents involving planes from the North of the country attacking SPLA positions in the South were extensively reported. The incidents took place in the disputed border region of Abyei, where most of the country’s oil revenues are generated from. The North fears for a huge revenue loss if the region falls to the South. Thus, the chances that the two bombings have since shown that lines were being drawn in the sand by two great armies of the North and the South are high.
In the potentially explosive North-South Sudan referendum, the issue of the common border at Abyei, pitting the National Congress Party of President Bashir against First Vice President Salva Kir’s Sudanese Liberation Movement, is one to be watched closely. It is not lost to the South Sudan that the North has been gerrymandering the borders since 78% of the Sudan’s Oil is in Southern Sudan, yet all oil must be exported through the Northern Pipelines up to Port Sudan. Even though there has been a silent arms race between the two regions, this means that since the referendum is going ahead without resolving the issue of Abyei, then as both armies draw the line on this oil-rich region, regional countries will be sucked in as well.
This brings me to one concluding question! Should Uganda be concerned then? Yes. The North (Khartoum) used Joseph Kony’s Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) rebels to fight SPLA in return for arms to Kony to fight Uganda. Kony’s forces have been sighted in Darfur fighting along the Janjaweed against the Fur people. So, if the North decides to get beefy with the South, the return of Kony to Northern Uganda is not impossible. If Sudan goes to war, surely Kony as a must will return.
According to John Andruga, the spokesman of the Southern Sudan government, the Sunday referendum is a matter of life and death. The African Union and United Nations are supposed to be the guarantors of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement but Southern Sudan feels that the AU peace and security team do not have the teeth to compel the implementation of this CPA and in fact, on the agitation of Northern Sudan, there was talk in AU circles to push forward the referendum, but South Sudan was ready to fight for it with a ferocity of a wounded lion.
The South knows that if the vote went for the unity of Sudan, the Southern Sudanese will remain second class citizens, yet according to the Northern Sudanese pundits, the breakaway of Sothern Sudan to form its independent state will cause a perestroika-like copycat secessionist movements and separatism in all parts of Sudan. Yet again, if the referendum were to be pushed ahead, that would mean the CPA has collapsed and with the collapse of CPA, nothing binds the North and South and the only outcome will be War.
A war between the North and South means that Arab countries like Egypt will support Arab Sudan to safeguard the waters of River Nile, since most of the Nile River tributaries are in the South. Northern Sudan will revive their war hit-men like Kony and Uganda will be behind Southern Sudan to fight off Kony. The situation might be saved only if the leaders of the AU member states put aside their ‘Vuvuzela’ rhetoric and concentrate on the Sudan issue, or else risk an African Armageddon.




