Given the high-stakes ideological wars being fought in modern American politics, and with such intense levels of rhetoric, it’s interesting to consider what the Presidential election of 2012 might look like. Three scenarios present themselves: an extension of the current situation, a Republican Congress for the coming two years (or at least half of Congress), or a Democratic Congress
Assuming for the moment, no matter how improbable it is, that Congress stays in essentially the same form of seat-based gridlock, a curious situation arises: if Congressional Republicans, and the GOP at large, continue the path they’ve begun of obstruction, rollbacks, repeals, and “how far can we move to the right”, they will have essentially handed the Presidency to President Obama for his second Term of Office. Contrary to the belief of some, a policy of obstruction and extreme conservatism is not what the majority of America wishes to see, and it places the members of such a party in an unelectable position. More importantly, however, is the gift they give to their opponent: talking points.
Even if nothing else is passed in Congress over the next few years, President Obama will have healthcare reform, financial reform, the beginning of Iraqi withdrawal, an Afghanistan military timetable, and considerably more to speak about. Additionally, the GOP’s “Pledge to America” and well-documented behavior will give him the ability to point toward the actions of Republicans over the preceding four years, and ask America if this is truly what they want more of. It’s easy to see how, no matter who the Republican candidate is, this would be another landslide election for President Obama – no matter personal opinion of his time as President, he truly shines in a competitive campaign environment, and hard data will only strengthen his position.
Similarly, a Democratic Congress for another two years is merely an extension of the aforementioned situation, as it would both give Republicans the ability to continue to obstruct and generally fail to govern, without actually handing the government over to them. Therefore, the presentation of a Republican Congress is the only truly different scenario, as there would be a period of two years for President Obama to reference, using their failed control of Congress against them. It’s not difficult to imagine a Republican Congress refusing to cooperate with President Obama’s policy goals, just as it’s not difficult to imagine President Obama handily vetoing many of the pieces of legislation passed under such a Congress.
If, however, a Republican Congress manages to achieve some of their stated goals, such as a repeal of healthcare reforms, continued protection of Big Business, or a version of “fiscal conservatism” that results in an even greater national deficit, they will have once more walked into a corner. Two years of Republican policies, perhaps even ones that negatively effect the country, will be far easier set of talking points for a Democratic Presidential candidate to use on the campaign than the obstruction of a Congressional minority. When President Obama can point to the number of ludicrous bills he vetoed, or bills turned into law that were catastrophic in their results, the election will have again been won.
Perhaps Republicans will take some Congressional seats in November, although any form of majority seems unlikely, but this is not necessarily for the net negative – two years of Republican rule in Congress will see President Obama handily re-elected for a second Term of Office, and control of Congress passing once more to Democrats, in a far larger majority than in 2008. The only choice the GOP has to avoid this future is to stop, effective immediately, their continued push to the extreme right of both ideology and religion, but this is, realistically, all but impossible. Having built their existence and negligible growth on the fundamentalist ideology of the Tea Party and other similarly non-mainstream ideas, it would, at this point, be difficult to reverse course, or even slow the process.
Republicans, welcome to your future.
From Kyle Brady…
Kyle can be found on his blog, via email, or on Twitter.










