From Larry Wohlgemuth…

Everybody was certain it would happen, and in the wake of the shooting in Tucson last week only the most militant teabagger was able to deny that incendiary rhetoric played a role. We knew this talk of crosshairs, Second Amendment remedies and lock and load eventually would have repercussions, and it did.

Only the most obtuse can deny that, if you talk long enough about picking up a gun and shooting people, marginal personalities and the mentally ill will respond to that suggestion. Feebleminded and disturbed people DO exist, and to believe these words wouldn’t affect them seemed inauthentic at best and criminal at worst.

Now that the unthinkable has happened, people on the left want to shove it down the throats of wingers that are denying culpability. Suddenly, like Manna from heaven, a radical new “meme” was gifted to people intended to buttress their arguments that incendiary rhetoric does indeed result in violent actions.

It begs the question, what is stochastic terrorism, and how does it apply to the shooting in Tucson.

This diary on Daily Kos by a member who calls himself G2geek was posted Monday, January 10, two days after the tragedy in Tucson. It describes in detail the mechanisms whereby “stochastic terrorism” works, and who’s vulnerable to it. Here’s the diarist’s own words in explaining stochastic terrorism:

“Stochastic terrorism is the use of mass communications to stir up random lone wolves to carry out violent or terrorist acts that are statistically predictable but individually unpredictable.”

So the diarist claims that stochastic terrorism in fact exists, and is being used systematically with predictable results. It’s a strong condemnation of the right, one that fits hand in glove with the events of January 8, and the left was all over it. This radical new theory was the talk of progressive websites across the country, but should it have been?

Whenever something is introduced into the discussion that perfectly fits the needs of one side or the other, I’m always cautious. The first indication there might be problems with the diarist’s claims was the lack of citations or links to any peer-reviewed studies on the subject. What he did have was links to anecdotal evidence that particular cases of violence had been precipitated by the rhetoric of the right. This made me nervous, so it was time to do some more digging.

This is the definition of stochastic:

1. Random; specifically involving a random variable; a stochastic process
2. Involving chance or probability; probabilistic; a stochastic model of radiation-induced mutation

Next I Googled stochastic terrorism using quotes, and began the laborious grunt work of sifting through the results to locate any scientific studies on the subject. Most of the results on the first 6 to 8 pages were progressive websites spreading the word about this new discovery, and linking back to the original article at Daily Kos. I went through 15 pages of results, and I did find a couple of hits that referred specifically to “stochastic terrorism” as a phenomenon, but they didn’t buttress the diarist’s claims.

The first was a report done by Samrat Chatterjee, Graduate Research Assistant, and Mark D. Abkowitz, PhD, Professor at Vanderbilt University, titled A Methodology for Modeling Regional Terrorism Risk. The second was a report done by Dr. Gordon Woo, Risk Management Solutions, LTD, titled Quantitative Terrorism Risk Assessment. Neither of these studies came close documenting the phenomenon the diarist had outlined.

One appear to be concerned with plotting random terrorist attacks for the purpose of predicting potential monetary losses for insurance purposes. It had nothing to do with lone wolves, incendiary rhetoric or anything else in the diary. The other had a single reference regarding how an act of terrorism was multiplied by the reach of the media, but not that the media had any causal effect for terrorist acts. Fifteen pages of search results on Google revealed nothing on stochastic terrorism per the diarist’s claims.

It’s not a problem if someone’s forwarding their own hypotheses as a potential explanation, however there should be a disclaimer. The diarist presented it not as his own creation, rather as a fact having some level of acceptance in the scientific community. Unless the results are so obscure that they are buried past page 15 of the Google search results, there’s nothing to support his diary. Apparently written by a relatively intelligent and lucid individual, he should understand the need to document his claims. Absent any supporting or corroborating documentation, I am forced to put this into the receptacle labeled bullshit.

The question is, why would he do it? What possible motivation would someone have to concoct or fabricate out of thin air 2700 words not supported by any studies, and present them as scientific fact? I can think of a couple of reasons.

The most generous is that he’s well-meaning, but simply took several anecdotal incidents and wove them together in support of what he desperately wanted to be true. The most condemning would be that it was a blatant attempt to make all those on the left who fail to practice due diligence look like idiots. The truth probably falls somewhere in between those two extremes.

Hopefully this article prompts him to provide any existing academic studies and research to support his argument. Should he do that I’d gladly retract everything I’ve said and issue a profound apology for my cynicism. The problem is, to invest so much effort without citing the original study leads one to believe that such documentation doesn’t exist. I don’t imagine I’ll be issuing any retractions or apologies.

We have a problem in this country, and it’s that the intellectual level of the discussion has been lowered to a point where people no longer consider their words. We stand breathlessly waiting for someone to hand us yet another club which we can use to bash our opponents, never considering its truthfulness. Unfortunately the left can now be labeled as knee-jerk reactionaries in the same way that the right can be labeled mean-spirited and hateful. No longer does anyone occupy the moral high ground, rather we’re all in the manure pile throwing feces at each other, not smart enough to realize that’s exactly what our corporate masters want.

It’s the politics of distraction to keep the idiots at the bottom arguing about things that may matter, but are not the root of the problem. Stochastic terrorism? It’s all made up and inserted into the narrative just like another ton of feces being dropped on the manure pile, and people aren’t smart enough to open their eyes and realize that they’re being covered with shit.

We’ve been trained like so many fleas, and we act predictably just like the diary said. Will we ever learn, or will we continue to rip each other to shreds while corporations and the wealthy systematically separate us from all we own? I don’t know about you all, but I’m getting out of the manure pile because it’s getting pretty stinky here.

It was like something out of a spy novel. On January 19^th of this year, in an exotic setting, an assassination of a high level political player was made to look like a heart attack. The victim was a 50-year-old Hamas commander, Mahmoud Al-Mabhouh, a man Israel claimed killed two Israeli soldiers. The place – Dubai.

Al-Mabhouh was found slumped over dead in his hotel room. His door was both locked and chained from the inside. Authorities quickly assumed death by natural causes.

One doctor however, noticed something odd with the victim’s blood. Soon puncture marks, one on his left leg and another behind an ear, were discovered. When Palestinians informed Dubai police the victim was Mahmoud al-Mabhouh, some began to quietly wonder. Blood samples were sent overseas and when toxicology reports revealed he’d been given a fatal dose of anesthetic, police knew it was a homicide.

Lacking any witnesses, Dubai authorities and outside investigators went through hundreds of hours of video tape. Dubai videotapes everything, from the moment people get off a plane. The airport tarmac, the immigration counters, baggage-claims areas, and taxi stands are all monitored. From there, cameras can see who gets into what car and then through the highway toll system, cameras can track to what locations these cars were sent. In nearly every hotel cameras are placed in the lobby, hallways, bars, sports clubs, and restaurants.

Authorities eventually surmised there were 8 people who had no business being at the Rotanna Hotel the night in question and tracked them down. Interpol eventually issued an alert for 16 people involved in the Dubai assassination. That number later increased to 27.

It was soon discovered those involved were all using perfectly forged passports, some even using the names of real people. The plot thickened and as it did, evidence strongly supported the accusation made by the Palestinians and later the Dubai Police. This was a hit set up by the Israeli secret service. When it was discovered that many of those involved were Israel citizens using fake European and Australian passports, the shoe fit.

David Miliband, the United Kingdom’s foreign secretary, has since expelled an Israeli diplomat after strong evidence suggested Israel cloned British passports. Although the diplomat is not the Israeli ambassador to Britain, the expulsion sends a very clear signal to Israel. The individual in question heads the Israel secret intelligence office in London known as Mossad. Although there is no proof these men were acting on orders from the Israel government, The UK still felt there was enough evidence to expel the diplomat in question.

If the Israeli government is ever linked to the murder of Al-Mabhouh, it won’t be the first time. In 1997, during his first go as Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the poisoning of Khaled Meshaal, a Hamas official residing in Jordan. The attempt became an embarrassment however, when Meshaal’s bodyguards captured the Mossad assassination squad. An angered King Hussein forced Netanyahu to send the antidote to Jordan and ordered the release Hamas leader Ahmed Yassin. Yassin was sent to Jordan to mollify the King, wh’d recently signed a much maligned peace treaty with Israel.

Over the past eighteen months, international sentiment has been turning against Israel. The Israelis are now under all-round diplomatic pressure from its allies worldwide.

Israel resents Britain’s support for greater restraint in terms of Jewish settlements in occupied Palestinian territories. In December of 2009 last year Tzipi Livni, Israel’s opposition leader, had to cancel a trip to the United Kingdom when a warrant was issued for her arrest on war crimes charges.  Just this past week, the UK even warned its citizens of possible passport abuse when entering Israel.

The United States, along with the support of Britain and many others in the international community, are pushing Israel to stop building for Jews only on occupied land, as it makes negotiations for the two state solution next to impossible. Barack Obama and his administration are no longer simply accepting what they see happening in Palestine.

But will Israel listen to calls for change from around the world, including its greatest allies?  History tells us no.

From David Anthony Hohol…